It’s possible but unlikely that same-sex marriage will be fully overturned. The 2015 Supreme Court ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges made marriage equality a constitutional right. However, several conservative groups and lawmakers have asked the Court to revisit that decision. Former Kentucky clerk Kim Davis has filed an appeal to overturn Obergefell. Moreover, the Court now has a 6-3 conservative majority, including three justices appointed by Trump.

Some justices, like Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, have signaled interest in revisiting the case.

Even if Obergefell were reversed, the Respect for Marriage Act (2022) would still require states to recognize same-sex marriages performed elsewhere and guarantee federal recognition. But states could ban new same-sex marriages within their borders… It would create a patchwork of laws similar to what happened after Roe v. Wade was overturned.

Overturning the Respect for Marriage Act would require Congress to act, which is politically difficult since 67% of Americans support marriage equality.