An invasion of Taiwan by China would be one of the hardest operations in modern warfare. Experts say it would likely happen in three main phases.
First, China would launch massive missile strikes to destroy Taiwan’s air defenses, air bases, and command centers. This “joint firepower strike” could involve thousands of missiles hitting hundreds of targets, aiming to cripple Taiwan’s ability to fight and discourage U.S. intervention. Cyberattacks and cutting undersea internet cables might also be used to isolate the island digitally.
Second, China would try an amphibious assault across the Taiwan Strait. This means thousands of troops and heavy equipment moving by ships and landing craft to Taiwan’s beaches. It would be extremely risky: Chinese forces could suffer huge losses from mines, artillery, and air strikes before even reaching land. Picking landing zones is critical. Southern Taiwan offers easier beaches but requires a long march to Taipei, while northern beaches are closer to the capital but heavily defended.
Third, if landings succeed, Chinese forces would push inland toward Taipei. This would be a grinding campaign through cities, rivers, and mountains, with Taiwan blowing up bridges and tunnels to slow them down. Meanwhile, China might also enforce a blockade, seize small outer islands first, or use civilian ships to supplement its military fleet. Surprise and speed would be key, but large-scale preparations could tip off Taiwan and its allies unless disguised as military drills.
The stakes are enormous. A full-scale war would be devastating, killing tens of thousands, wrecking the global economy, and reshaping geopolitics. Whether China will actually attempt this remains uncertain, but its military buildup and increasingly realistic exercises suggest it is preparing for the possibility. U.S. involvement would be decisive. Without it, Taiwan’s chances drop sharply.
In short: If deterrence fails, expect missile barrages, amphibious landings, and a brutal ground fight for Taipei—one of the bloodiest and most complex operations of the century.
